Selected article for: "disease exit rate parameter value and initial virus spread rate estimate"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_98
    Snippet: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 10.03.2020, I(0) = 48031 and after 10 days -on 20.03.2020, I(10) = 172591 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 172591 48031 = 0.128. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β −γ, gives an estimate of the initial vi.....
    Document: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 10.03.2020, I(0) = 48031 and after 10 days -on 20.03.2020, I(10) = 172591 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 172591 48031 = 0.128. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β −γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.128+0.03 1−0.39 = 0.32. It is this value of β that leads to the model graph in the Fig.10 .

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