Selected article for: "electronic supplementary material and extinction risk"
Author: Camacho, Anton; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Graham, Andrea L.; Carrat, Fabrice; Ratmann, Oliver; Cazelles, Bernard
Title: Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study
  • Document date: 2011_12_22
    • ID: 12y420k8_22
    Snippet: Regarding the 2Vi hypothesis, R 0 estimates (figure 3) indicate that the two viruses should have had very different transmissibility (both viruses are supposed to have the same duration of infection). The resulting dynamics reveal that during the first epidemic wave, the highly transmissible virus outcompetes the poorly transmissible virus, which has a 35 per cent risk of extinction owing to ecological interference (electronic supplementary mater.....
    Document: Regarding the 2Vi hypothesis, R 0 estimates (figure 3) indicate that the two viruses should have had very different transmissibility (both viruses are supposed to have the same duration of infection). The resulting dynamics reveal that during the first epidemic wave, the highly transmissible virus outcompetes the poorly transmissible virus, which has a 35 per cent risk of extinction owing to ecological interference (electronic supplementary material, text S5). However, if the poorly transmissible virus manages to maintain a low prevalence until the end of the first wave, when the highly transmissible virus goes extinct, then it can initiate the second epidemic wave (electronic supplementary material, figure S8 ).

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