Author: Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M.; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mills, Harriet L.; Blake, Isobel M.
Title: Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience Document date: 2017_5_26
ID: 12t247bn_20
Snippet: The transmissibility of a pathogen determines the intensity of interventions needed to achieve epidemic control [44] . The parameter most often used to quantify transmissibility is the reproduction number (R), the mean number of secondary cases infected by a single individual. This parameter has an intuitive interpretation: if R . 1, then the epidemic is likely to grow, whereas if R , 1, the epidemic will decline [44, 45] . The final attack rate .....
Document: The transmissibility of a pathogen determines the intensity of interventions needed to achieve epidemic control [44] . The parameter most often used to quantify transmissibility is the reproduction number (R), the mean number of secondary cases infected by a single individual. This parameter has an intuitive interpretation: if R . 1, then the epidemic is likely to grow, whereas if R , 1, the epidemic will decline [44, 45] . The final attack rate ( proportion of the population infected) of an epidemic also depends on the value of R at the start of an epidemic (termed R 0 if the population has no immunity). R can be estimated from the incidence of reported cases, given knowledge of the serial interval distribution (i.e. distribution of time between symptom onset in a case and symptom onset in his/her infector; see §2b(iii)) [46] [47] [48] [49] .
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