Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm

Tom Britton

We now present our estimation-prediction procedure. We start by predicting the behaviour of the outbreak based on knowing the basic reproduction number R 0 and the doubling time d in the initial phase of the epidemic. We then time-calibrate the model in the sense of estimating where in the epidemic outbreak we are on a given date t 1 by using cumulative case fatalities and knowledge of the typical time between infection and death s D . Finally, we predict the time calibrated epidemic outbreak under the assumption that a set of preventive measures are put in place a given date t p during the early phase of the epidemic outbreak. This is done either assuming the overall reduction in spreading is known, or else by assuming that the increased doubling time after prevention, d p , is observed.