Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

Although our study relies on data from relative to the Italian Covid-19 contagion, the proposed modeling approach can be broadly generalized to understand which dimensions, beside medical ones, should be considered to define leverage strategies for containing epidemics and mitigating its effects. Such a framework can also guide policymakers in the assessment of the trade-off between the impacts on the health care systems and the effects on wider economy. In particular, our analysis reveals how the timeline of post-lockdown measures can benefit from the inclusion of compartmental aspects, such as the geographical groups and age classes, in the decision process of a policymaker. For instance, this approach can be applied to evaluate specific quarantine measures for target age classes, such as those impacting on the most fragile age class (70+). For 13 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.