Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm

Tom Britton

As input for our prediction we use the observed doubling time d during the initial growth rate and the basic reproduction number R 0 , both valid before any preventive measures were put in place. The doubling time can for example be estimated from the empirical doubling time of case fatalities as described in [1] . The doubling time relates to the exponential growth rate r of the epidemic by the relation e rd = 2, so r = ln(2)/d. The basic reproduction number can be estimated using other data sources, for example using contact tracing giving information about the (random) generation time G and its mean g = E(G) (this is however not trivial, cf. [2] , [12] ). Here we assume the initial doubling time d and the basic reproduction number R 0 to be known.