Author: Rui Qi; Chao Ye; Xiang-rong Qin; Xue-Jie Yu
Title: Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China Document date: 2020_2_26
ID: hk491mr6_3
Snippet: A number of T values were selected for screening based on convergence laws. After 104 different T values were tried, as Figure 1 showed, when assumed T was 11, the daily CFRs 105 were decreasing and had no pronounced increase, when it was 0 to 7; the daily CFRs had 106 pronounced increase after early time (T > 11 were not shown due to continuously decreasing 107 trends). CFRs increased as expected according to laws at later stage in some assumed .....
Document: A number of T values were selected for screening based on convergence laws. After 104 different T values were tried, as Figure 1 showed, when assumed T was 11, the daily CFRs 105 were decreasing and had no pronounced increase, when it was 0 to 7; the daily CFRs had 106 pronounced increase after early time (T > 11 were not shown due to continuously decreasing 107 trends). CFRs increased as expected according to laws at later stage in some assumed T 108 values (e.g. T=0), but it decreased at early stage which seemed not satisfy the convergence 109 laws. Actually, it was normal. Convergence laws happened due to the force of the true CFR 110 drawing daily CFRs towards its direction by dominating accumulated death numbers. At early 111 stage, the outcome of death had not yet occurred resulting in daily CFRs decreasing with the 112 growth of case number. Thus, T value exploration by convergence laws should depend on 113 period of death growth. 114
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