Author: Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall
Title: Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: k5q07y4b_62
Snippet: We tested further assumptions. A simple SEIR model, with exponentially distributed incubation and infectious periods (with the same means as above but constant infectivity) leads to much smaller values of R 0 than our estimates, as it favours really short incubation periods (Table S1B, left) . Estimates, instead, do not change significantly if high variability in total infectiousness between individuals, in line with what observed for SARS, is as.....
Document: We tested further assumptions. A simple SEIR model, with exponentially distributed incubation and infectious periods (with the same means as above but constant infectivity) leads to much smaller values of R 0 than our estimates, as it favours really short incubation periods (Table S1B, left) . Estimates, instead, do not change significantly if high variability in total infectiousness between individuals, in line with what observed for SARS, is assumed (Table S1B , right) or if 50% of cases are assumed to be fully asymptomatic and transmit at half the rate as those with symptoms (not shown).
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