Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_12
Snippet: This is a phenomenological model that has proved useful to characterize and forecast early epidemic growth patterns Viboud, Simonsen, & Chowell, 2016) . In particular, previous analyses highlighted the presence of early sub-exponential growth patterns in infectious disease data across a diversity of disease outbreaks . The generalized-growth model allows relaxing the assumption of exponential growth via a "scaling of growth" parameter, p. The mod.....
Document: This is a phenomenological model that has proved useful to characterize and forecast early epidemic growth patterns Viboud, Simonsen, & Chowell, 2016) . In particular, previous analyses highlighted the presence of early sub-exponential growth patterns in infectious disease data across a diversity of disease outbreaks . The generalized-growth model allows relaxing the assumption of exponential growth via a "scaling of growth" parameter, p. The model is given by the following differential equation:
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