Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_42
Snippet: A random pattern in the temporal variation of the residuals suggests a good fit of the model to the data. Conversely, systematic deviations of the model to the data (e.g., temporal autocorrelation) indicate that the model deviates systematically from the data, which prompts modelers to reassess the current version of the model. If the model is used for forecasting purposes, it is particularly important that the residuals are uncorrelated and the .....
Document: A random pattern in the temporal variation of the residuals suggests a good fit of the model to the data. Conversely, systematic deviations of the model to the data (e.g., temporal autocorrelation) indicate that the model deviates systematically from the data, which prompts modelers to reassess the current version of the model. If the model is used for forecasting purposes, it is particularly important that the residuals are uncorrelated and the variance of the residuals is approximately constant.
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