Author: Guorong Ding; Xinru Li; Yang Shen; Jiao Fan
Title: Brief Analysis of the ARIMA model on the COVID-19 in Italy Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: ilwsrir6_21
Snippet: The ARIMA (2,1,0) model was constructed to fit the logarithmic sequence of cumulative diagnoses, and the residual sequence after fitting was tested to be a white noise sequence, that is, the model was significant. The significance of the parameters was also tested. Based on this model, we predict the cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses in the next 5 days. Since it was a logarithmic sequence before, it should be converted accordingly next [10.....
Document: The ARIMA (2,1,0) model was constructed to fit the logarithmic sequence of cumulative diagnoses, and the residual sequence after fitting was tested to be a white noise sequence, that is, the model was significant. The significance of the parameters was also tested. Based on this model, we predict the cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses in the next 5 days. Since it was a logarithmic sequence before, it should be converted accordingly next [10] [11] . Logarithmic cumulative confirmed sequence prediction is shown in Figure 4 : It is known from Figure 4 : The logarithm of the cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses of COVID-2019 is in a gradual phase, that is, the growth rate of the cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses is slowing down. This is a very important signal that Italy is now at a very critical point.
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