Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L.; Meltzer, Martin I.

Our illustrative outbreak scenario shows the cost to the US export economy of a single country outbreak and the Note: Number of US jobs estimated number of jobs supported by US 2015 exports to countries included in illustrative outbreak scenario, where stages correspond to the degree that the outbreak is not contained to 1 country and the countries directly affected (Table 1) . Categories listed on the horizontal axis depict the following countries and the stages of the outbreak: Stage I: Cambodia; Stage II: Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia; Stage III: Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and China (Table 1) . Assumes a 1-to-1 correlation between the reduction in demand for US exports and the epidemic-related reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) (see Table 2 and Appendix Table 2 ).