Danger of Potential-Pandemic-Pathogen Research Enterprises

Klotz, Lynn C.

Three quite different probabilities for escape, P 1 , are employed in the calculations in the tables. The highest probability (P 1 ϭ 0.002) is a minimum estimate calculated (6) from CDC statistics (7) for undetected or unreported LAIs in biosafety level 3 (BSL3) labs. This probability is likely higher than that for LAIs in BSL3 labs that have extra biosafety precautions in place (called BSL3ϩ), such as Fouchier claims for his lab. The probability (P 1 ϭ 0.0001) is 20 times lower and is an estimate for differences between BSL3 and BSL3ϩ labs. The final probability (P 1 ϭ 1 ϫ 10 Ϫ6 ) is Fouchier's estimate (3) . To make his estimate, Fouchier itemizes the various safety measures in his lab and generously reduces the probability for each safety measure but admits that it is a guess: "the magnitude of this increase in safety is not known." Finally, the discussion here of probabilities has been restricted to LAIs, but there are other routes of escape, such as mechanical failure and removal of live virus from BSL3ϩ containment accidentally or for hostile purposes.