Characterizing key attributes of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in China: Model-based estimations

Houssein H Ayoub; Hiam Chemaitelly; Ghina R Mumtaz; Shaheen Seedat; Susanne F Awad; Monia Makhoul; Laith J Abu-Raddad

The model parameterized the variation in the rate of infectious contacts through a Woods-Saxon function [8] [9] [10] [11] to characterize the transition after China's robust public health response in terms of its scale or strength, smoothness or abruptness, duration, and the turning point. The model also incorporated an age mixing matrix that allows a range of contact mixing between individuals varying from fully assortative (mixing only with individuals in the same age group) to fully proportionate (mixing with individuals with no preferential bias for a specific age group). The latter was incorporated to capture any assortativeness in infection transmission mixing by age. Further details on model structure can be found in Section 1 of SI.