Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_95
Snippet: Using only data of the early epidemic growth phase (before the inflection point occurring around day 50), the model is underdetermined and significantly underestimates the incidence curve. Forecasts are gradually improved particularly when the model is calibrated using data past the epidemic's inflection point (Fig. 17) ......
Document: Using only data of the early epidemic growth phase (before the inflection point occurring around day 50), the model is underdetermined and significantly underestimates the incidence curve. Forecasts are gradually improved particularly when the model is calibrated using data past the epidemic's inflection point (Fig. 17) .
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