Author: Diego Caccavo
Title: Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 9032hh5c_59
Snippet: Such severe impact of the virus SARS-CoV-2 on the Italian would not have been expected looking at the initial reproduction number (Figure 6 B) ). The lower infection kinetic recorded in Italy generated an initial â„› ! of 6 (way lower than the Chinese). However, â„› ! decreased slower due to the retarded lockdown (constant value in (Figure 6 B) ) and due to the not increasing recovery rate. The average <â„› ! > in Italy was calculated to be 3.9, .....
Document: Such severe impact of the virus SARS-CoV-2 on the Italian would not have been expected looking at the initial reproduction number (Figure 6 B) ). The lower infection kinetic recorded in Italy generated an initial â„› ! of 6 (way lower than the Chinese). However, â„› ! decreased slower due to the retarded lockdown (constant value in (Figure 6 B) ) and due to the not increasing recovery rate. The average <â„› ! > in Italy was calculated to be 3.9, close to the â„› ! range of [2.13 -3.33] reported in [24]. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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