Author: Jiawen Hou; Jie Hong; Boyun Ji; Bowen Dong; Yue Chen; Michael P Ward; Wei Tu; Zhen Jin; Jian Hu; Qing Su; Wenge Wang; Zheng Zhao; Shuang Xiao; Jiaqi Huang; Wei Lin; Zhijie Zhang
Title: Changing transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China: a nationwide population-based piecewise mathematical modelling study Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kuf8p4e1_13
Snippet: where ܰ denotes the population size of Wuhan, ܵ , ‫ܧ‬ , ‫ܫ‬ and ܴ ݉ denotes the number of susceptible, exposed (incubation), symptomatic and removed individuals, respectively. Although ‫ܫ"‬ " represents infectious individuals in traditional SEIR models, we assumed all exposed individuals were also infectious and used ‫ܫ‬ to represent the symptomatic phase. As it is not clear how prevalent is asymptomatic infection, we assu.....
Document: where ܰ denotes the population size of Wuhan, ܵ , ‫ܧ‬ , ‫ܫ‬ and ܴ ݉ denotes the number of susceptible, exposed (incubation), symptomatic and removed individuals, respectively. Although ‫ܫ"‬ " represents infectious individuals in traditional SEIR models, we assumed all exposed individuals were also infectious and used ‫ܫ‬ to represent the symptomatic phase. As it is not clear how prevalent is asymptomatic infection, we assumed for model simplicity that all exposed individuals move to the symptomatic phase. The infectiousness levels of exposed and symptomatic individuals are represented by the infection forces were detected outside Wuhan during this period, and therefore we still focused on . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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