Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of Covid-19: an ancillary approach to decision-making in pandemic context

Sylvain Mangiarotti; Marisa Peyre; Yan Zhang; Mireille Huc; Francois Roger; Yann Kerr

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051441 doi: medRxiv preprint 8 The same model was used to simulate the evolution observed in Italy (light coloured lines) showing a good agreement with the observational data (thick red line). This agreement may be surprising considering the difference in population size between the two countries. The behaviour observed in China relies, for more than 83.5%, on the Hubei province which population size is quite similar to that of Italy. Comparing with the evolution of the epidemic in 5 Italy, this simulation is backing up the fact that the strict control measures applied by the Chinese Table 1 ). In France the recent control measures enforcing confinement of all the French population based on voluntary basis but under government control has arrived later than in China but earlier than in Italy and Spain in terms of number of cases (~1000).