Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972 doi: medRxiv preprint Fig. 2 . Log daily confirmed cases and growth rate estimation for numerous European countries. Curves (black lines) are fit using the Generalised Linear Model methodology (see Materials and Methods) to the first 9 days non-zero data after a cumulative incidence of 25 is reached (period shown as a blue rectangle), which for most countries coincided with the start of sustained local transmission, with the exception of the UK and Romania where fitting started an additional 9 days after this criterion was met to reflect the local situation. Daily new cases are shown as red dots.