Author: Sylvain Mangiarotti; Marisa Peyre; Yan Zhang; Mireille Huc; Francois Roger; Yann Kerr
Title: Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of Covid-19: an ancillary approach to decision-making in pandemic context Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: gnk3m0b8_18
Snippet: February 2020). The outbreak was obviously still on its earlier transient at this time while no inflection had already been evoked. The data show that the inflection started on 6 February 2020, after which observations respectively stayed in the range [+1800; +3000] for C 1 (t), [-10; +1800] for s 1 (t) and [+60; +120] for D 1 (t). These values are not fully consistent with the model's 5 variables ranges at convergence. This is due to the increas.....
Document: February 2020). The outbreak was obviously still on its earlier transient at this time while no inflection had already been evoked. The data show that the inflection started on 6 February 2020, after which observations respectively stayed in the range [+1800; +3000] for C 1 (t), [-10; +1800] for s 1 (t) and [+60; +120] for D 1 (t). These values are not fully consistent with the model's 5 variables ranges at convergence. This is due to the increased actions taken to control the disease, which prevented the propagation of the disease before it could reach this level. This control action was effective in slowing down the spread of the epidemic itself, but not on the fatality numbers as no treatment was available to cure the infected people. The reduction of severe cases and deaths could therefore only be caused by measures to slow down the epidemic progression. 10 That can explain why the maximum values of daily deaths simulated by the model could not be reached by C 1 but was exceeded by s 1 and D 1 .
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