Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of Covid-19: an ancillary approach to decision-making in pandemic context

Sylvain Mangiarotti; Marisa Peyre; Yan Zhang; Mireille Huc; Francois Roger; Yann Kerr

The present analysis shows that the global modelling approach, possibly in conjunction with other approaches, could be useful for decision makers to monitor the efficiency of control measures. In particular, it could be used to adapt more classical modelling approaches when needed to ensure mitigation or, hopefully, eradication of the disease [5, 24] (important 15 methodological differences between the present study and more classical modelling approaches are sketched in Suppl. Mat. 7). This work could be used also to inform decision makers in countries in other parts of the world, especially in the LMICs countries, such as in Africa [25] and southeast Asia, where numbers of Covid-19 cases are still relatively low and where rapid enforcement of control measures similar to those done in the Hubei province, in South Korea and 20 Japan should be done to prevent a catastrophic evolution of the disease.