Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model

Diego Caccavo

The seriousness of the Italian COVID-19 cases can be seen also looking at the death kinetic, which is initially ( ! ) 2.5 times greater than the Chinese and also slower in the decrease (higher ( ), as it can be seen in Figure 6 A) (black dotted line). This caused many deaths in Italy (>20,000) and many other are expected, overcoming 30,000 cases. The higher lethality could be due to the However further studies should be performed to investigate such a high lethality, i.e. in [23] it is suggested that the reasons could be found in the Italian extensive intergenerational contacts, which are supported by a high degree of residential proximity between adult children and their parents. Other reasons, such as the careless management of the elderly in nursing homes is an ongoing political and criminal debate.