Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model

Diego Caccavo

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is The Italian outbreak, still in the peak region, has showed stable death and recovery kinetic over the past 30 days, indeed fitting backward in time the Italian data the parameters ! , ! , ( result quite stable. The most important parameter, which causes the retardation of the decreasing phase of the epidemic is the characteristic time % in the infection kinetic. The higher % , the longer it will take to reduce the number of cases (the longer it will take to reach â„› ! <1). In Figure 7 the impact of the variation of % is reported on incident cases. With the blue solid thick line the "best fit" value (used in this work) is reported. However, as it can be seen from the experimental data, the epidemiologic data are prone to be describe with other characteristic time of infection % , especially higher than the present "best fit" value. Therefore, depending on the new infection of the next days the peak could slightly translate, however with limited impact on the deaths count. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.