Author: Luis Santamaria; Joaquin Hortal
Title: Chasing the ghost of infection past: identifying thresholds of change during the COVID-19 infection in Spain Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 8niqpwvc_18
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 changes. When analyzing the data from Madrid, we observed discontinuities that suggested that some breakpoints could involve a change in the intercept, rather than in the slope. This would imply a significant shift in values at a given day, followed by a continuous increase at the same growth rate that preceded such day -an scenario consistent, for example, with a sudden increase i.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 changes. When analyzing the data from Madrid, we observed discontinuities that suggested that some breakpoints could involve a change in the intercept, rather than in the slope. This would imply a significant shift in values at a given day, followed by a continuous increase at the same growth rate that preceded such day -an scenario consistent, for example, with a sudden increase in infection rate during the mass gatherings of 7-8 March. To test for this possibility, we assessed the fit of an additional model with two breaking points, the first one involving a change in the intercept and the second one involving a change in the slope (Model 5).
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