Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_5
Snippet: These SIR-type models, however, serves a critical purpose for long-range policy 77 planning, such as warning policy-decision makers of the gravity of the potential 78 impact and prompting them to take proper actions before it is too late. After the 79 breakout, more information is needed for more detailed planning, such as the 80 arrival of the critical turning points, the number of hospital bed we might need at 81 the peak, and the estimate for .....
Document: These SIR-type models, however, serves a critical purpose for long-range policy 77 planning, such as warning policy-decision makers of the gravity of the potential 78 impact and prompting them to take proper actions before it is too late. After the 79 breakout, more information is needed for more detailed planning, such as the 80 arrival of the critical turning points, the number of hospital bed we might need at 81 the peak, and the estimate for when to lift the quarantine, and when to return to 82 normalcy. We offer here an additional tool that has the advantage that it has does 83 not depend on the elusive infection rate or the susceptible population, information 84 needed for most models, but has the disadvantage that it cannot be used when the 85 epidemic first started and the data are inaccurate or incomplete. It is based on daily 86 case numbers (i.e. newly confirmed cases), N(t), and recovered cases, R(t). 87 88
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