Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

Roosa, K.; Lee, Y.; Luo, R.; Kirpich, A.; Rothenberg, R.; Hyman, J.M.; Yan, P.; Chowell, G.

The number of 2019-nCoV cases in Wuhan quickly outnumbered the available number of beds in hospitals, putting a substantial burden on the healthcare system. Consequently, the government rapidly built and launched two new hospitals with capacity for 1,600 and 1,000 beds, respectively, in Wuhan in addition to the existing 132 quarantine sites with more than 12,500 beds (Steinbuch, 2020) . To anticipate additional resources to combat the epidemic, mathematical and statistical modeling tools can be useful to generate timely short-term forecasts of reported cases. These predictions can include estimates of expected morbidity burden that can help guide public health officials preparing the medical care and other resources needed to confront the epidemic. Short-term forecasts can also guide the intensity and type of interventions needed to mitigate an epidemic (Funk, Camacho, Kucharski, Eggo, & Edmunds, 2016; Shanafelt, Jones, Lima, Perrings, & Chowell, 2017) . In the absence of vaccines or antiviral drugs for 2019-nCoV, the effective implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as personal protection and social distancing, will be critical to bring the epidemic under control.