Selected article for: "China epidemic overall trajectory and Hubei province"
Author: Roosa, K.; Lee, Y.; Luo, R.; Kirpich, A.; Rothenberg, R.; Hyman, J.M.; Yan, P.; Chowell, G.
Title: Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020
  • Document date: 2020_2_14
    • ID: 0zw3ukpx_5
    Snippet: In this emerging epidemic, the epidemiological data is limited, and the epidemiological parameters needed to calibrate elaborate mechanistic transmission models are not yet fully elucidated. Real-time short-term forecasts must be based on dynamic phenomenological models that have been validated during previous outbreaks Pell, Kuang, Viboud, & Chowell, 2018) (Bürger, Chowell, & Lara-Díıaz, 2019) . We employ several dynamic models to generate an.....
    Document: In this emerging epidemic, the epidemiological data is limited, and the epidemiological parameters needed to calibrate elaborate mechanistic transmission models are not yet fully elucidated. Real-time short-term forecasts must be based on dynamic phenomenological models that have been validated during previous outbreaks Pell, Kuang, Viboud, & Chowell, 2018) (Bürger, Chowell, & Lara-Díıaz, 2019) . We employ several dynamic models to generate and assess 5, 10, and 15 day ahead forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, and the overall trajectory of the epidemic in China excluding the province of Hubei.

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