Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China

Rui Qi; Chao Ye; Xiang-rong Qin; Xue-Jie Yu

The copyright holder for this preprint As shown in Figure 5 -non-Hubei, since Feb 4, calculated death numbers had a good fit to the 193 true death data. The curves came closest to coinciding in shape. For Hubei (Figure 5-Hubei) , 194 the predictive curve was similar in shape with true death line, however, from Jan 23 to Feb 10, 195 predicted death numbers were smaller than the true numbers. The predicted curve from Jan 23 196 to Feb 10 seemed be moved to right about 2 or 3 days. A subset data from Jan 21 to Feb 12 197 was selected to recalculate the T, and results in Hubei, T was 2 days. However, it could be go back on production. In summary, as death numbers had been almost accurately predicated 208 by calculated true CFR for more than 3 weeks, it could be considered as the true CFR of 209 COVID-19 in China except Hubei Province. For Hubei, calculated death number 210 corresponded with the reported number for more than 2 weeks. 211 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. Chinese Spring Festival holidays. The Chinese government rapidly isolated Wuhan and took 224 emergency measure nationwide to prevent and control disease. Non-Hubei regions response 225 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.