Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_70
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046177 doi: medRxiv preprint Estimate of "all clear" declaration 388 We can now estimate a time for a declaration of "all clear". No verification is yet 389 possible as the predicted date has not occurred. At the turning point, the EIC is still 390 at its peak. For the disease to have run its course, and an "all clear" declaration ca.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046177 doi: medRxiv preprint Estimate of "all clear" declaration 388 We can now estimate a time for a declaration of "all clear". No verification is yet 389 possible as the predicted date has not occurred. At the turning point, the EIC is still 390 at its peak. For the disease to have run its course, and an "all clear" declaration can 391 be announced, we require that the newly infected case number to drop to zero. For 392 prediction practice this "zero" is measured by three standard deviations from the 393 peak of N(t). Then we wait for two incubation periods, each 14 days, to pass, before 394
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