Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_78
Snippet: Since α(t ) has a zero and its first derivative near the zero is nonzero (viz negative) 457 because t p is the maximum of I(t), it is a linear function of t with negative slope in 458 that neighborhood. This expectation is verified empirically, using data for the total 459 existing case numbers. We find that this time dependent infection rate is 460 approximately a linear function of time in the neighborhood of its zero over a period 461 of a fe.....
Document: Since α(t ) has a zero and its first derivative near the zero is nonzero (viz negative) 457 because t p is the maximum of I(t), it is a linear function of t with negative slope in 458 that neighborhood. This expectation is verified empirically, using data for the total 459 existing case numbers. We find that this time dependent infection rate is 460 approximately a linear function of time in the neighborhood of its zero over a period 461 of a few weeks. 462 463
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