Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_111
Snippet: We assumed an exponential distribution for the generation interval of influenza with a mean of 4 days and variance of 16. Using the early growth phase in the number of new case notifications during the first 20 epidemic days, we estimated the deceleration of growth parameter at 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.0), an epidemic growth profile with uncertainty bounds that includes exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p ¼ 1) (Fig. 19) . Based on the generalized-.....
Document: We assumed an exponential distribution for the generation interval of influenza with a mean of 4 days and variance of 16. Using the early growth phase in the number of new case notifications during the first 20 epidemic days, we estimated the deceleration of growth parameter at 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.0), an epidemic growth profile with uncertainty bounds that includes exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p ¼ 1) (Fig. 19) . Based on the generalized-growth method, we estimated the effective reproduction number at 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.1) (Fig. 20) .
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