Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L.; Meltzer, Martin I.

To estimate the impact on the US export economy of a 3.3% to 16.3% 1-year reduction in the GDP of the 9 countries affected in the illustrative scenario, we assumed a 1-to-1 correlation between reduction in GDP of importing countries and value of US exports to those countries. That is, we assumed a 3.3% or 16.3% reduction in the GDP of an importing country will result in a 3.3% to 16.3% reduction in US exports to that country. Thus, to calculate the potential loss of exports, we multiplied the 2015 recorded value of exports to each of the countries in the illustrative outbreak scenario by either 3.3% or 16.3% countries (see Appendix Table 2 ).