Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L.; Meltzer, Martin I.

Our estimates of potential economic impact are conservatively low when compared to other published estimates of the possible impact of infectious disease epidemics. 14, 15, 20 For example, when examining the potential macro-economic impact of an avian influenza epidemic in 9 Southeast Asia countries, Bloom and colleagues estimated that an epidemic that caused 2 quarters (6 months) of economic contraction would result in a US$99 billion reduction in demand side growth, plus a US$14 billion reduction in supply (production) growth. 21 An epidemic that lasted a full year (ie, similar to our illustrative scenario) would cause approximately US$283 billion reduction in demand and a US$14 billion reduction in supply. 21 The latter estimates of the losses due to a year-long epidemic are equivalent to approximately a 6.8% reduction in GDP across all 9 countries (6.5% due to reduced demand, 0.3% due to reduced supply). Further, our maximum estimate of losses is less than 5.0% of all US exports to countries by the global health security priority countries. 9 One of the most important limitations to our illustrative outbreak scenario is the use of the estimates of the loss of GDP in West Africa due to Ebola. As we discussed earlier, however, the estimates of percentage loss of GDP in West Africa are not that different from other estimates of impact of epidemics in Southeast Asia. Perhaps harder to directly defend is our assumption of a direct 1-to-1 correlation between loss of GDP in countries importing US goods and reduction in US exports to the affected countries. As discussed earlier, there is sufficient evidence to reasonably assume a positive correlation between trade and growth in GDP. 18 Further, we have not included in our analyses potential secondary economic effects that may be associated with the overall slowdown in an economy due to an infectious disease outbreak. For example, an infectious disease outbreak in Southeast Asia could slow, or even stop, the supply of essential components and inputs into US production systems and the economy, further aggravating the negative economic impact on the United States. But our point is not to generate a ''precise estimate'' of potential loss. Rather, our intent is to provide policymakers with an order-ofmagnitude of possible losses and also provide an estimate of the reduction in US exports and jobs at risk. Even if, for example, our estimates were reduced by 50%, the impact on the US export economy of an uncontained outbreak in 9 countries would be considerable.