Author: Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall
Title: Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: k5q07y4b_42
Snippet: As well as the semi-parametric GAM approach, we take a parametric approach based on direct estimation of the exponential growth rate. This lacks the ability to capture time variation, but allows for extrapolation and epidemiological interpretation. To capture over-dispersion we use a quasi-Poisson family for the noise model. Explicitly, the Negative Binomial probability mass function (pmf) is.....
Document: As well as the semi-parametric GAM approach, we take a parametric approach based on direct estimation of the exponential growth rate. This lacks the ability to capture time variation, but allows for extrapolation and epidemiological interpretation. To capture over-dispersion we use a quasi-Poisson family for the noise model. Explicitly, the Negative Binomial probability mass function (pmf) is
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