Assessing health burden risk and control effect on dengue fever infection in the southern region of Taiwan

Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Chen, Szu-Chieh; You, Shu-Han; Chen, Wei-Yu; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Yang, Ying-Fei; Liao, Chung-Min

Mathematical modeling is an essential tool to address public concerns relating to an ever-expanding number of emerging diseases and to explore the importance of biological and ecological characteristics on disease transmission. 3, 4 Mathematical models submit your manuscript | www.dovepress.com Dovepress Dovepress 1424 cheng et al are useful tools in controlling infectious disease, allowing us to optimize the use of limited resources or simply to target control measures more efficiently. 4 A variety of mathematical models have been proposed for enhancing our understanding of the interactions between the mosquito−human population dynamics and dengue transmission. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] For vector-borne diseases, the vectorial capacity and the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) are usually used to characterize the critical components involved in vector-human transmission dynamics. [10] [11] [12] [13] The vectorial capacity captures key components of an insect's role in pathogen transmission, 10 whereas R 0 quantitatively characterizes the average number of secondary cases that are generated by a primary infectious case via the vectors in an entirely susceptible population. 11 R 0 is also a key epidemiological determinant that establishes threshold criteria for control practices and provides an index for the intensity of control interventions necessary to contain an outbreak. 11 It is recognized that temperature fluctuations have significant impacts on the time when mosquitoes become infectious and consequently affect vectorial capacity, R 0 , and disease burden. [14] [15] [16] [17] Fraser et al 18 derived a control measure model from von Foerster equation-based criteria for the likely success of public control measures in containing outbreaks of infectious diseases. The R 0 and the proportion of asymptomatic infectious (q) are two major determinants indicating whether the disease is under control. The Fraser's control measure model has been applied to evaluate the control effectiveness for several infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), HIV, smallpox, and influenza, 1, 2, 18 but not yet for dengue.