Author: Chowell, Gerardo
Title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts Document date: 2017_8_12
ID: 3aa8wgr0_114
Snippet: In future research we will build on this framework to address issues related to model uncertainty (Lloyd Chowellet al, 2009 ). In particular, researchers often focus on a given model and data to characterize the state of the system, but less on how different sets of assumptions influence parameter estimates, their uncertainty and impact on forecasts. Instead of relying on a single model, the information provided by multiple contending models can .....
Document: In future research we will build on this framework to address issues related to model uncertainty (Lloyd Chowellet al, 2009 ). In particular, researchers often focus on a given model and data to characterize the state of the system, but less on how different sets of assumptions influence parameter estimates, their uncertainty and impact on forecasts. Instead of relying on a single model, the information provided by multiple contending models can be integrated into ensemble models (e.g., model weighting schemes (Burnham & Anderson, 2002) ), analogous to weather prediction systems (Raftery et al., 2005) .
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- different set and future research: 1, 2, 3, 4
- different set and system state: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- different set and uncertainty model: 1
- ensemble model and future research: 1, 2
- ensemble model and model weighting: 1
- ensemble model and parameter estimate: 1
- ensemble model and prediction system: 1, 2, 3, 4
- ensemble model and single model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- ensemble model and system state: 1, 2
- ensemble model and uncertainty model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date