Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015

Lee, Hyunsun

ion. The index case was confirmed with MERS in Hospital K1 and most of Gen 1 were located at the same hospital, which creates a strong autocorrelation at s ¼ 0 as depicted in the second row in Fig. 12 . In Fig. 10 , we can infer that most of Gen 2 in Hospital S2 were infected by patients from Hospital K1 in Gen 1 that were located about 53 km apart. This explains the peak in the autocorrelation in Gen 2. The patients in Gen 3 were mostly infected from patients at the same hospital or nearby hospitals. To understand these graphs better, we note that the projections of the autocorrelation in the first row in Fig. 12 onto s-axis and t-axis have similar patterns with the left graph and the right graph in Fig. 11 , respectively.