Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca L.; Meltzer, Martin I.

Although this is a simple extrapolation, it is not necessarily simplistic. Both the 3.3% and 16.3% estimates of reduction in GDP, for example, were generated from complex and sophisticated economic models that also assess the ''spillover'' effects associated with a sustained epidemic in neighboring countries. Those models take into account a large number of variables, including the interconnections between sectors of an economy and the trade between countries. 12 The positive correlations between trade (both exports and imports) and growth in GDP is well known. The World Bank concluded that there is sufficient evidence to state that ''. a rising share of world trade in GDP has been accompanied by rising per capita GDP since 1980.'' 17(p60) Note: USD=US dollar. The 3 stages depicted here assume the outbreak spreads and is not contained to 1 country (for list of countries in each stage, see Table 1 ). It assumes a 1-to-1 correlation between the outbreak-related reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) and the reduction in demand for US exports (see Table 2 and Appendix Table 2 ).