Author: Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile
Title: Pandemics, Severity, and Context—Some Loose Ends Document date: 2017_8_1
ID: 42abb96r_2
Snippet: A measure of geographic spread should be included in the GCBR definition. In the world of influenza, a pandemic is defined as a novel virus that spreads to at least 2 world regions; and following the unexpectedly mild 2009 pandemic, a measure of clinical severity was added in order to better tailor the strength of interventions. It seems to us that the GCBR definition may be lacking a geographical dimension. For example, would a pathogen that dev.....
Document: A measure of geographic spread should be included in the GCBR definition. In the world of influenza, a pandemic is defined as a novel virus that spreads to at least 2 world regions; and following the unexpectedly mild 2009 pandemic, a measure of clinical severity was added in order to better tailor the strength of interventions. It seems to us that the GCBR definition may be lacking a geographical dimension. For example, would a pathogen that devastated 1 big city or a single country fit the definition? On the flipside, the 1918 pandemic was associated with a death rate of 1% to 2%, which seems low in comparison to other threats; but given its broad geographic extent, the total death toll amounts to as many as 50 million deaths in today's population, over a few months.
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