Selected article for: "branching process and outbreak probability"
Author: Lee, Hyunsun
Title: Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015
  • Document date: 2019_6_14
    • ID: 6cyhjt10_34
    Snippet: The stochastic branching process model fits well with this scenario of the MERS outbreak in South Korea since it involves a relatively small number of patients compared to the whole population of South Korea, allowing us to trace the individual contacts and gain the detailed dynamics of the transmission. Based on the transmission data, we estimate the probability of ultimate extinction by using the probability generating function and assuming the.....
    Document: The stochastic branching process model fits well with this scenario of the MERS outbreak in South Korea since it involves a relatively small number of patients compared to the whole population of South Korea, allowing us to trace the individual contacts and gain the detailed dynamics of the transmission. Based on the transmission data, we estimate the probability of ultimate extinction by using the probability generating function and assuming the probability of extinction eventually reaches the equilibrium state. The probability of ultimate extinction of the MERS outbreak in South Korea is calculated as 0.4996.

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