Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

Roosa, K.; Lee, Y.; Luo, R.; Kirpich, A.; Rothenberg, R.; Hyman, J.M.; Yan, P.; Chowell, G.

Forecasting results for 10-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5e9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model. 10 day ahead forecasts of case counts in Hubei generated on February 5th show significantly different results between the GLM and Richards versus the sub-epidemic model, with the sub-epidemic model predicting significantly higher case counts (Fig. 2a) . For forecasts generated after February 5th, the prediction intervals of the three models are comparable, with the GLM intervals having the lowest uncertainty, followed by the Richards model (Fig. 2a) . For other provinces, the sub-epidemic model yields significantly wider prediction intervals than the other two models. Like the 5 day ahead forecasts, the 10 day ahead prediction intervals become increasingly narrow for Hubei when including more data, but uncertainty remains relatively stable in other provinces.