Author: Fouchier, Ron A. M.
Title: Studies on Influenza Virus Transmission between Ferrets: the Public Health Risks Revisited Document date: 2015_1_23
ID: 33f94doo_16
Snippet: Multiplying the probability of occurrence of an LAI by the probability of onward transmission from each case of LAI, one can estimate that the probability of an LAI resulting in onward transmission would range between (1 ϫ 10 Ϫ7 ) ϫ (2.5 ϫ 10 Ϫ6 ) (or 2.5 ϫ 10 Ϫ13 ) and (1 ϫ 10 Ϫ7 ) ϫ (3 ϫ 10 Ϫ5 ) (or 3 ϫ 10 Ϫ12 ). From this analysis, the estimate is that when research is performed on transmission of influenza viruses via respirator.....
Document: Multiplying the probability of occurrence of an LAI by the probability of onward transmission from each case of LAI, one can estimate that the probability of an LAI resulting in onward transmission would range between (1 ϫ 10 Ϫ7 ) ϫ (2.5 ϫ 10 Ϫ6 ) (or 2.5 ϫ 10 Ϫ13 ) and (1 ϫ 10 Ϫ7 ) ϫ (3 ϫ 10 Ϫ5 ) (or 3 ϫ 10 Ϫ12 ). From this analysis, the estimate is that when research is performed on transmission of influenza viruses via respiratory droplets or aerosols between ferrets in the Erasmus MC facility, to which 10 persons have access, 1 LAI with onward transmission would be expected to occur far less frequently than once every 33 billion years. This probability could be assigned the term "negligible," given that the age of our planet is only 5 billion years.
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