Author: Meng Wang; Jingtao Qi
Title: A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China Document date: 2020_3_10
ID: 6tnkz6hh_10
Snippet: The spreading trend of COVID-19 on the Chinese mainland (excluding Hubei) could be predicted with the model. With the fitting results, the number of current infectives would be less than one after April 2 with 95% confidence level (CL) 1 , that can be regarded as the ending of the disease. Meanwhile, the total number of confirmed cases would approach 14408±429. In addition, we see the current infectives peaks around February 11. Should we perfor.....
Document: The spreading trend of COVID-19 on the Chinese mainland (excluding Hubei) could be predicted with the model. With the fitting results, the number of current infectives would be less than one after April 2 with 95% confidence level (CL) 1 , that can be regarded as the ending of the disease. Meanwhile, the total number of confirmed cases would approach 14408±429. In addition, we see the current infectives peaks around February 11. Should we perform the same analysis on data before the peaking date, we could obtain similar results, but with comparatively larger uncertainties, as shown in Figure 3 , confirming the predictability of the method.
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