Author: Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann; Julian Heidecke; Hridya Vinod Varma; Noemi Castelletti; Jan H Meinke; Stefan Krieg; Thomas Lippert
Title: A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 0xymzkzn_1
Snippet: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020 [1] . We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at projecting possible modifications and improvement of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models a.....
Document: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020 [1] . We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at projecting possible modifications and improvement of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models allow to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The overall goal is to suggest strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually fatalities. The project was developed in the framework of a newly established collaboration on "Epidemiology and Pandemics" between Heidelberg University, the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies and the Jülich Supercomputing Center.
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