A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Jan Fuhrmann; Julian Heidecke; Hridya Vinod Varma; Noemi Castelletti; Jan H Meinke; Stefan Krieg; Thomas Lippert

• A partial lifting of the restrictions imposed thus far, planning for a reopening of schools, universities, and restaurants, resuming work and most club activities after mid April 2020 is predicted to result in an increase of some 15% of the death toll over the BSL scenario by the model. Simulations indicate that the favorable effects of the restrictions imposed to date would be substantially reversed, leading to a comparable scenario as the do-nothing scenario, with an epidemic peak around mid May 2020, 2.2 Mio diagnosed cases on the day of the peak and 620,000 fatalities over the course of the epidemic. If, however, this is accompanied by significantly increased testing activity, isolation of identified cases and reduced contact with vulnerable individuals, such a partial withdrawal leads to less severe consequences. Indeed, model simulations of this scenario indicate that the (first) epidemic peak would be reached due to increased testing activity in the second half of April 2020, with 670,000 detected SARS-CoV-2 infections at the outbreak peak. A second peak would follow and the epidemic would last for a longer period (more than one year), but the total number of cases (14.4 Mio, out of which there are 1.2 Mio asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections) and fatalities (about 60,000) would be substantially limited by the measures according to the model.