Author: Diego Caccavo
Title: Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 9032hh5c_22
Snippet: The kinetic of death , especially for new diseases, it is not constant and decreases with time, luckily. This is due to the adaptation of the pathogen, whose less lethal strains tend to be the most spread, as well as due to the development of new clinical treatments. Moreover, at the beginning of an epidemic usually the severe cases are observed first and the overall rate of dying appears to decrease when less severe cases are added. In this work.....
Document: The kinetic of death , especially for new diseases, it is not constant and decreases with time, luckily. This is due to the adaptation of the pathogen, whose less lethal strains tend to be the most spread, as well as due to the development of new clinical treatments. Moreover, at the beginning of an epidemic usually the severe cases are observed first and the overall rate of dying appears to decrease when less severe cases are added. In this work an exponential decay function was used to describe this evolution:
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