Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

Roosa, K.; Lee, Y.; Luo, R.; Kirpich, A.; Rothenberg, R.; Hyman, J.M.; Yan, P.; Chowell, G.

Our results for Hubei province indicate that the parameter estimates for the three models tend to stabilize and decrease in uncertainty as more data become available (Supplemental Table 1 ). In particular, the growth rate r decreases and appears to be converging over time, particularly for the GLM and sub-epidemic model. Parameter K also follows this general trend, with prediction intervals decreasing significantly in width as more data become available. Importantly, the p estimates from the GLM indicate that the epidemic growth in Hubei is close to exponential (p ¼ 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98, 1) e February 9th). Further, growth rate and scaling parameter estimates have remained relatively stable over the last three reporting dates, while estimates of K are still declining. This may correlate with the effectiveness of control measures or the slowing of the epidemic.