A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia

Eifan, Saleh A.; Nour, Islam; Hanif, Atif; Zamzam, Abdelrahman M.M.; AlJohani, Sameera Mohammed

Sensitivity analysis was performed by considering: (i) Detailed definition of source region to provinces and belonging cities, including Riyadh, Qasim, Makkah, Madinah, Baha, Eastern Province, Tabuk, Jouf, Hail, Northern border, Asir, Najran and Jizan. (ii) Restricted five regions were used for data assembly and cluster-based interpretation and only the significant clusters data was utilized for sensitivity analysis. (iii) A variation in the time of the initial emergence of the virus with transmission to humans was considered maximum up to 5.2 days for inter-human transmission and it was assumed that sporadic cases may be introduced for a period of more than 5.2 days before the known initial cases. (iv) Daily sporadic cases detected in the baseline scenario during the period of 2 year study were excluded in the sensitivity analysis to test the possibility of inter-human transmission.