Author: Tang, Biao; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Li, Qian; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni; Wu, Jianhong
Title: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: thu861hj_19
Snippet: Under the gradually enhanced control strategies since January 23rd , 2020, the parameter values with substantial changes include the contact rate, the diagnose rate and the quarantined rate q. Therefore, we fixed the parameter values except these three as the estimated values in our previous study (Tang et al., 2020) . The initial contact rate c 0 is assumed to be the average contact rate between January 10th , 2020 and January 22nd , 2020, hence.....
Document: Under the gradually enhanced control strategies since January 23rd , 2020, the parameter values with substantial changes include the contact rate, the diagnose rate and the quarantined rate q. Therefore, we fixed the parameter values except these three as the estimated values in our previous study (Tang et al., 2020) . The initial contact rate c 0 is assumed to be the average contact rate between January 10th , 2020 and January 22nd , 2020, hence c 0 ¼ 14:781. With the same assumption, we set d I0 ¼ 0:133. Note that, the initial conditions can be obtained by solving our previous model (Tang et al., 2020) from January 10th , 2020 to January 23rd , 2020. Thus, the main task is to estimate the parameter values q; c b ; r 1 ; d If ; r 2 .
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