Author: Tang, Biao; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Li, Qian; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni; Wu, Jianhong
Title: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: thu861hj_32
Snippet: There are essential differences between Wuhan, Hubei, and the rest of the country as we discussed above, therefore, a more realistic model should involve the Wuhan-Hubei-China coupled system with different initial data, varying resources, and changing mobility patterns from the epicenter to the province, and the rest of the country. It is also important to mention that we only used the data of cumulative confirmed cases from January 23rd to Janua.....
Document: There are essential differences between Wuhan, Hubei, and the rest of the country as we discussed above, therefore, a more realistic model should involve the Wuhan-Hubei-China coupled system with different initial data, varying resources, and changing mobility patterns from the epicenter to the province, and the rest of the country. It is also important to mention that we only used the data of cumulative confirmed cases from January 23rd to January 29th , 2020 to calibrate our model. Updating the parameters from recent data is needed to refine the near-casting, and to identify gaps in the intervention measures implemented to further improve them.
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